In street poker, niko kadi – the equivalent of checkmate in Chess – sends shivers down the spines of opponents, especially if the game is a high stakes one. Thus, niko kadi, a phrase lately embraced by Kenyan youth, especially the Gen Z who are now turning up in growing numbers to register as voters, has all the hallmarks of a checkmate move against the status quo, particularly if its proponents walk the talk.

Like poker, elections are a calculations game, likely to shape the kings and queens to ascend on the throne of governance. These electoral Chess moves will decide who has the aces to alter the political equation in the run up to the next election. 

As it stands, the current electoral register has just over 22 million voters, of which 39% are the youth aged between 18 and 35 as at the 2022 general election. As things stand today, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission is targeting to register six million new voters, bringing the total to 28 million, if not more. Given the flurry of activity by the youth in recent weeks, using niko kadi as a rallying call to mobilize, the youth could make up to over 70% of the newly registered voters. 

So far, initial figures given by the IEBC do not confirm this, but it is still early days. 

Be that as it may, it could be worthwhile to work the numbers and see whether niko kadi and the expected increase in youth numbers in voter registration can become the serious notice of intent the youth wish to assert. 

First, assuming 70% of targeted new voters are youth, this gives 4.2 million votes out of the IEBC’s expected six million first-time voters. Now let us add the number of young registered voters from the previous general election (approximately 40% of 22 million voters), which is 8.8 million, and we get a new young voters figure of 13 million strong. Using the IEBC’s 28 million registered voters target, our estimated registered youthful voters would give just over 46% of the overall national vote (I say youthful because some of them have since gone beyond 35 years since 2022). 

Further analysis shows that during the 2022 general election, only 14 million out of the 22 million registered voters voted, with the official voter turnout being 64.5% of all registered voters. If we were to project that the 46% youthful vote calculated above were to vote for one presidential candidate (or at least majority of them), and given that the constitutional magic number for winning the presidency is 50% plus one vote, then the youthful constituency only needs an additional 5% of registered voters for them to win the game in the first round of voting. 

Pragmatically, not all registered youthful voters will turn out to vote. But even if a 70% turnout was to be applied across the board, the overall outcome remains that if they live up to niko kadi, the youth have what it takes to tilt the 2027 electoral scale. 

And so, does Niko Kadi present a real electoral threat?  

From the above analysis, yes, it does. 

This means that other political players need to seriously take notice of this demographic and plan accordingly, putting in place game-saving if not life-saving play, lest they lose hands down. In poker, there are players whose tactics can either save the game or sell it. There will always be those who get happy when the game ends and those who dread the game ending. Given the high political stakes, this is what we are facing as a country. If the youth represent change, as they almost always do, then the political status quo should be worried. 

It will not be impossible for the youthful voters, who can potentially make 46% of total registered voters, to get the 5% top-up from pro-change, non-youthful voters to make 50% of the total cast votes plus one vote.

But like in poker, nothing is certain. 

There will be hidden aces, trump cards that can change fortunes. 

The assumption that the youth demographic is homogenous and will therefore vote in one direction is just that, an assumption. In the last presidential election, which was won with just over 200,000 votes, the youth vote was all over the place. 

Identity and ethnicity have always played a big role in our political mobilization, with surveys showing that money plays a major role in voter persuasion. All these variables, and more, have to be factored into the forthcoming electoral calculations, and as things stand, once all these are considered, no clear picture emerges. 

More importantly, this discussion is not only for the presidential election. 

As a country, we seem to be obsessed with the presidency and the person who becomes president, forgetting that there are about 1882 vacancies encompassing members of county assembly, members of parliament (senate and national assembly) and governors. All occupants of these almost 2,000 electoral seats should be on notice, with an estimated turnover of 60% for members of parliament.

In sum, while the niko kadi campaign is to be lauded, a lot still needs to be distilled to decipher whether the wantam or tutam campaigns will have their way. But given the youth numbers, and if they register, there could arise a third option, a newtam. 

Let’s keep mathing the math.